McCain has apparently selected Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska to be his running mate this morning. A few quick thoughts:
- It’s a gamble.. almost a Hail Mary, which suggests to me that the McCain campaign doesn’t see the narrowing national polls as a great sign. My guess is that the campaign agrees with Plouffe’s assessment of the race (see below) and knows it has its work cut out for it.
- The campaign has accepted (correctly or incorrectly – only time will tell) the notion that there is a large number of Hillary supporters who supported her simply because she is a woman. Aside from the obvious, Clinton and Palin couldn’t be farther apart on most issues.
- The McCain campaign has firmly accepted the ‘change’ frame – something that bodes very well for Obama/Biden. I am tickled every time I see McCain supporters trying to twist ‘Change we Can Believe In’ to ‘Change we Can Believe In’. (A side note: I just realized how awkward that phrase is).
This aside, it seems like such a foolish move that I’m nervous about it. The campaign must have some numbers that make it believe that this stunt will work at picking off Hillary supporters. Clearly, HIllary’s importance to this election just went up… way up.
I hope to see her publicly and visibly denouncing this ASAP for what it is – evidence of a patronizing view of women, as well as a shrewd political move. If the Democrats can frame it in such a way without aliennating women, this could do more to destroy the ‘maverick’ frame than nearly anything I can think of.
Somebody close to the campaign is going to have to start targeting Catholic women in the Rust Belt, first with Hillary’s denouncements, and then (more forcibly) with as much John Hagee(he of “the Catholic Church is the Great Whore of Babylon” fame, as well as someone whose support McCain actively courted) references as possible. Yeah, I know that that isn’t a noble or pretty thing to do, and I really hope that it is only used as a last resort, but damn if it isn’t a great defense.
Her lack of experience – she has been a governor (of Alaska, no less) for less time than Obama has been running for president – throws a wrench into the ‘experience’ narrative. I think. Can Biden and Obama attack her on this? I doubt it, but they can possibly effectively attack McCain on the hypocrisy of the pick. Or will that reinforce doubts about Obama by bringing the issue back to the fore? It’ll be interesting to see this play out either way.
Finally, I hate to say this because everybody knows how bad dirty politics are, but the best thing about this pick for the Democrats is that it provides an excellent defense against any attempt to swiftboat the Obama campaign. Obama’s people need to make it clear, in no uncertain terms, that, if provoked, they are willing to use the pick to highlight McCain’s penchant for ’selecting much younger women’.
And it could be a great October non-surprise…
